Prediction Series
Southern Colorado Runners is pleased to sponsor a Prediction Series for the 2008 calendar year.
What is the Prediction Series and How does it Work?
The Prediction Series has evolved out of a series of “handicap” races that started about twenty years ago under the sponsorship of SCR. As the name implies, the handicap series attempted to equalize the chance that any runner, regardless of ability, could win an event by handicapping the race in a variety of ways, such as staggered starts in which slower runners started before faster ones, points for age and gender, combined points for speed and accuracy, and so forth.
In the spirit of its predecessors, the current Prediction Series shifts the advantage for winning from purely speed to the ability of runners to predict their finish times. Here’s how it works. For each of the eleven races in the series, participants first write down their predicted run times, then watches are removed, and the start command is given. As runners cross the finish line, their respective times are recorded on a stop watch. Scores are determined by the difference between each runner’s predicted and actual times, the smaller the difference, the higher the score. Thus, a noteworthy feature of the prediction series, as compared to regular competitive runs, is that speed doesn’t necessarily win. Instead, the winners are those who predict most accurately the time it will take them to run the event. Indeed, this is an instance in which the maxim “Know Thy Self” rings true.
How Points are Calculated
Points for the 2007 Prediction Series will be calculated much as they have been during the past several years. First, the point spread or interval between places is computed using the following formula: Interval = 100/N, where N=number of participants in the event. Points are then assigned based on the rank of a particular runner’s score in the distribution of finishers. So, for example, if there are 16 runners, the interval between places is 6.25; the runner closest to his/her predicted time is awarded 100 points, second place earns 93.75 points, third place gets 87.5 points, and so forth, down to the sixteenth place finisher, who receives 6.25 points. If there is a tie in an event, no tiebreaker will be used and those having the same score will receive the same number of points.
As the series progresses through the year, points from each event are compiled to produce the interim and final standings for the series. The runner with the highest five-event point total at the end of the series is declared the winner, and all club members completing at least five races are eligible for awards.
Rules and Guidelines
A few simple rules govern the predict series. First, because the whole idea behind the series is to test one’s ability at predicting how long it will take to run or walk a given course, no watches are allowed. Second, headsets, iPods and similar electronic devices that might be used to unfair advantage are not allowed. And finally, largely because of insurance issues, no dogs are allowed in predict events.
Violation of any of the above rules will result in disqualification.
Some other considerations. To avoid confusion when results are calculated, all runners in a predict event must be timed on the same stop watch. This means that no early starts will be permitted. It also means that those who arrive after the race has started are advised to enter on the sign-up sheet a predict that takes into account the amount of time that has lapsed since the start. Results will be calculated based on what is entered on the sign-up sheet, and it is the runner’s responsibility, not the timers or those doing the results, to make adjustments for late starts.
To illustrate: Assume you arrive late and are told the race started about six minutes ago. You decide to start at ten minutes on the stop watch, so you incorporate this interval into your predict, write it down on the sign-up sheet, and, with the assistance of a timer, start at ten minutes into the race.
To emphasize: The predict times entered on the sign-up sheet will be used to calculate results, with no after-the-fact adjustments for late starts.
The 2008 Prediction Series Schedule
Check the Race Descriptions for details.
The distances vary, as do the challenges, sights, sounds and smells of the different courses for the series, with the Tunnel Drive and Temple Canyon predicts in Canon City favorites of many series participants in past years.
Awards, Rewards and More
SCR club members finishing at least five predict events receive awards, which are presented at SCR’s annual awards banquet. For those doing more than five events, the five highest scores are used to compute their total score and final standing in the series.
Finally, a popular feature of the Prediction Series is that many of the events are followed by a post-predict potluck. Obviously, the time of day determines the menu, but whether morning or evening, the food is plentiful, tasty and varied.
Thus, the Prediction Series offers a chance to test your skills at predicting your run time for a given distance, taking into account such factors as familiarity with the course, terrain, weather conditions, where you are in your training cycle, how hard you’re willing to push yourself, and so forth. Plus, there is a chance to socialize at all the events, with the added attraction of good eats at most of them, and, last but not least, if you’re a SCR member, you’ll receive an award by completing at least five races in the series.